Time for a Charticle!
Plus a new AI play... for those behind the velvet rope
No meta narrative tying together Homeric legend and market action today, just some observations from the edge…
Further evidence that Europe is accelerating:
Chart 1: Eurozone Industrial Production - from Inception
Chart 2: Eurozone Industrial Production - Last 10 Years
In Charts 1 and 2, above, you can see that the average year/year industrial production growth (horizontal white line) from the EU inception in 1992 has been 0.9 percent. That’s come from -5 percent to +3.7 percent in the past two years. I expect it to continue to rise. This will help the European hard asset play I laid out here.
The EU will be manufacturing like its life depends on it. Because it does.
There is a lot of talk about Japan 10-year yields ramping, because they are reaching all-time highs. They’re going higher. However, if you look at Japan CPI y/y, it’s lower than where is was two years ago.
Chart 3: JGB 10-Year Yield and Japan CPI
Chart 3, above, shows that these higher yields (white line) are sustainable, at least by the MMT criteria, because inflation (orange line) has not ramped to a level that has caused the peasants to revolt. That can always change, of course.
Since we’re on the topic of yields, here’s your U.S. 10-year yield chart.
Chart 4: U.S. 10-Year Yield
Now I’m hearing a lot of people say this is a great entry point for bonds. I urge caution, lest you become as #legendary as the Shedeur Sanders draft room. (Prediction: Shedeur and I will end up playing the exact same number of NFL game snaps.)
Remember this one?
Chart 5: 5s/30’s Yield Curve v. Bitcoin Price
Chart 5, above, shows that Bitcoin (white line) has finally started to follow the steepening 5s/30s curve up (green line). This is calling BTC $150-200k. We’ll see.
However, the real action has shifted to altcoins. Since the U.S. bombing of Iran on June 21st - admit it, you haven’ve though about that in weeks - altcoins have beat the brakes off Bitcoin.
Chart 6: Bitcoin v. Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink
It’s an alt-boy summer, I guess. (I’ll see myself out.)
And lastly, a buy recommendation - but you’ve got to be a card-carrying member of Tarot Nation to get this one.